Modelling and Forecast of Future Growth for Shandong’s Small Industrial Towns: A Scenario-Based Interactive Approach

The industrial small-town development process in Shandong is influenced by the urban agglomeration strategy and regional collaborative production, thereby resulting a challenge of growth boundary planning. How to build forecast decision support system help small towns maintain sustainable with limited trial error costs an essential topic current research town-related fields. Empirical analysis reveals that factors differ from cities due other-organization planning management self-organization construction activities coexist towns. Besides, size towns, impact policy changes more significant than cities. Furthermore, as part production chain, are most vulnerable uncertain external disturbances. Therefore, it necessary formulate different scenarios according possible disturbances output corresponding forecasts. aims decision-making for Shandong’s based on modeling approach using geographic information technology scenario Considering mutually driving effects objective environment subjective policies well dynamic mechanisms comparing theoretical basis limitations approaches, this essay constructs model mathematical dynamics model. It also interactive accompanied applicable rules so initial relevant goals can be inputted into simulate influence identify town scenarios.